The year of 2011 has already become a year of great revolutions in Muslim Asia and Africa. Because of its large scale this movement can only be compared with the Year of Africa[1] that was in1960 when many African countries got the independence from colonial powers. In my opinion, all these revolutions are part of postmodern picture of the world, and it can be seen as mixed ideas of pre-democratic societies and contra-reaction against western politics in region. For example, in Libya both Islamist[2] and democratic ideas can be seen among anti-Kaddafi rebels. Both of these forces are hoping to come in power in the fullness of time. And we could see that the aphorism ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ is working very well during Egyptian revolution. That’s why George Soros expressed support for The Muslim Brotherhood during the very beginning of this revolution.
Now, with the Libyan civil war and events in Syria just escalating we can only guess what country will be next in the revolution’s list. But, in my opinion, we should begin thinking about the future of all these countries and the whole region. Here I want to outline some details that drew my attention during all these revolution events in the Muslim Africa and Middle East. The consequences that I want to talk about can be divided into 3 groups: local, regional and global.
Local: There are some possible consequences inside Libya:
Concerning Libya, there is a great possibility for an increase in the level of the various radical movements’ adepts inside the country. After the change of government in the revolutionary way, came a period of transition and it commonly accompanies with a period of instability, which is a good chance for radicalism development.
One of the reasons of the revolution movement in this region was high unemployment level. The economic transformation, after revolution and the hostilities in a country such as Libya might lead to an increasing unemployment level not only there but in countries that are nearby. Almost certainly, in the near future an unemployment problem in countries, which have had a revolution period won’t be resolved. That’s why there is an opinion that radical Islam would have the chance to come in power in case the unemployment problem is not resolved.
Another issue, which is closely connected with the above one, is that there are possibilities for the appearance of many other economical problems after stabilization of political life in this country. It is obvious, that the Muslim traditionalism in economical life can’t provide stabile democratically and liberal reforms. This kind of after transitional period problems can be brought about by, for example, oil industry privatization or other steps of quasi-liberal reforms approaching. This might bring on high level problems that had been resolved during Kaddafi’s regime, as example, water problems. Change of regimes might influence of the water politics in this country; old project can be stopped, but new can be started. So, I think, this can aggravate water problem – export prices for this strategic resource might grow in future and that, of course, will lead to a decreasing in the standard of living[3].
Regional: it also can be proposing some ideas for Muslim Africa and Middle East region:
All kind of transformations in such Muslim courtiers will imply economic, political and, of course, cultural changes. Among the cultural transformations, a progressive shift from traditional to modernized society can be identified. And here we can see really huge problems: are these Muslim countries ready for the changes like this or we are ready to expect from them some radical movements and instability in region.
There are also possibilities of Muslim countries migration ties break. As we could see in Libya many workers had come from nearby countries, so increasing the level of unemployment in the North African region[4].
One more important consequence is that by this interference in the internal problems of Libya (even if this is a ‘humanitarian intervention’), Western steps shows to some countries in Muslim world that the idea of a government’s sovereignty isn’t yet so untouchable. The operation in Libya can show to other Muslim countries that only one chance to save their sovereignty is a deter factor, as a example, WMD.
Also, today many Western TV channels have been talking for a very long time, that revolution movement in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria (maybe in near future to this list will be added Algeria) was done with only one purpose: the transformation of authoritarian types of government to democratic societies. However, as Libyan example shows, it isn’t clear until now whom UN and NATO are supporting in this conflict. And I see a very interesting precedent here: very rarely can we see the situation when the U.S. and Europe don’t support rebels as freedom or democracy fighters, but as they are against existing government of Colonel Kaddafi and his regime. Military support is continuing even though many rebels may be Al-Qaida forces and other representatives of radical Islam. Beside this, the expectations of democratic changes in such countries are utopian and very naive, as there are only few countries among Muslim countries which pretend to have success in democracy. Among these countries is Turkey and it made a one-hundred-year-long trip to democracy but still has great problems of democracy adaptation[5].
Global: And in the end, outside Muslim region consequences:
We have already witnessed immigrant crisis that has been developing on Lampedusa Island[6]. Europe can’t save itself from this kind of immigrant crisis in future because of many reasons including the fact that they depend on immigrant labor and, in some ways, well-developed Human Rights politics. As a result Europe will have a high level of terrorism threat in the near future because of immigrants from Muslim countries.
Moreover, nowadays socio-political relations between Muslim and Western countries can’t be called strong. This little Libyan war that is so necessary for France’s president, can lead to a big problems inside French. It will be recalled that about 6 million Muslims are living in France, and this, of course, can influence an internal political situation. Beside this, this intervention has been a much-debated question within the EU[7].
One more important fact that might lead to interesting consequences is connected with the conservative politics that were in Muslim region until this year. “[T]here is no doubting that rulers such as Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia have been key Western allies. In the classic formulation of the Cold War, they were ‘our sons-of-bitches[8]’. Or, as a writer in The Washington Times lamented last week: ‘Mr. Mubarak may have been a tinpot dictator, but he supported America’.[9]” But it is also no doubt that the Barrack Obama administration became interesting in reforms of this region, and as a result there are some opportunities for extremists to come to power after all these revolutions: interference in internal problems and thus destabilizing the political situations can lead to very complicate situations.
Today many countries are interested in political changes in the Muslim Word, and so, of course, does the U.S. administration. The U.S.’s interests and wishes were very well described by journalist Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times newspaper: “In this, the governments of Syria and Iran are toppled and replaced by much more moderate regimes. The Israelis, reassured by the disappearance of their biggest foes, agree to the creation of a viable Palestinian state. Egypt stabilizes and becomes a prosperous democracy. Colonel Gaddafi is defeated and the grateful Libyans hail the west as heroes. A new and legitimate Yemeni government takes up the fight against al-Qaeda. The Saudi government embraces reforms that defuse its internal crisis, and keep the oil flowing”[10].
All these remarks confirm that we have become witnesses to a new Muslim world and global changes in this region and whole world. The unexpected creation of an instability zone in Muslim countries will have an influence on the European and Central Asia region. Evidently we can talk about 3 levels of consequences: local, regional and global; so here I tried to point out, from my point of view, the possible consequences.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_of_Africa
[2] www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DfDtsncp0IRM%26feature%3Dplayer_embedded
[3]About problems of water policy see: http://www.emro.who.int/ceha/pdf/proceedings27-Water%20policies%20in%20Libya.pdf
[4] http://www.euronews.net/2011/04/05/chad-refugees-still-stranded-in-libya/
[5] http://www.meforum.org/216/why-turkey-is-the-only-muslim-democracy
[6] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12816340
[7] http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/03/201132472924305721.html
[8] http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_larry_sa_070103_our_son_of_a_bitch.htm
[9] It’s 1989, but we are the Russians by Gideon Rachman Financial Times
[10] It’s 1989, but we are the Russians by Gideon Rachman Financial Times
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